Mid-Term Energy Demand Forecasting by Hybrid Neuro-Fuzzy Models

Hossein Iranmanesh, Majid Abdollahzade and Arash Miranian
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Hossein Iranmanesh: Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Majid Abdollahzade: Institute for International Energy Studies, Tehran, Iran
Arash Miranian: Institute for International Energy Studies, Tehran, Iran

Energies, 2011, vol. 5, issue 1, 1-21

Abstract: This paper proposes a structure for long-term energy demand forecasting. The proposed hybrid approach, called HPLLNF, uses the local linear neuro-fuzzy (LLNF) model as the forecaster and utilizes the Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter for extraction of the trend and cyclic components of the energy demand series. Besides, the sophisticated technique of mutual information (MI) is employed to select the most relevant input features with least possible redundancies for the forecast model. Each generated component by the HP filter is then modeled through an LLNF model. Starting from an optimal least square estimation, the local linear model tree (LOLIMOT) learning algorithm increases the complexity of the LLNF model as long as its performance is improved. The proposed HPLLNF model with MI-based input selection is applied to the problem of long-term energy forecasting in three different case studies, including forecasting of the gasoline, crude oil and natural gas demand over the next 12 months. The obtained forecasting results reveal the noteworthy performance of the proposed approach for long-term energy demand forecasting applications.

Keywords: local linear neuro-fuzzy (LLNF) model; Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter; HPLLNF; mutual information (MI); energy demand forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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