Annual Electric Load Forecasting by a Least Squares Support Vector Machine with a Fruit Fly Optimization Algorithm

Hongze Li, Sen Guo, Huiru Zhao, Chenbo Su and Bao Wang
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Hongze Li: School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
Sen Guo: School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
Huiru Zhao: School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
Chenbo Su: School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
Bao Wang: School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China

Energies, 2012, vol. 5, issue 11, 1-16

Abstract: The accuracy of annual electric load forecasting plays an important role in the economic and social benefits of electric power systems. The least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) has been proven to offer strong potential in forecasting issues, particularly by employing an appropriate meta-heuristic algorithm to determine the values of its two parameters. However, these meta-heuristic algorithms have the drawbacks of being hard to understand and reaching the global optimal solution slowly. As a novel meta-heuristic and evolutionary algorithm, the fruit fly optimization algorithm (FOA) has the advantages of being easy to understand and fast convergence to the global optimal solution. Therefore, to improve the forecasting performance, this paper proposes a LSSVM-based annual electric load forecasting model that uses FOA to automatically determine the appropriate values of the two parameters for the LSSVM model. By taking the annual electricity consumption of China as an instance, the computational result shows that the LSSVM combined with FOA (LSSVM-FOA) outperforms other alternative methods, namely single LSSVM, LSSVM combined with coupled simulated annealing algorithm (LSSVM-CSA), generalized regression neural network (GRNN) and regression model.

Keywords: annual electric load forecasting; least squares support vector machine (LSSVM); fruit fly optimization algorithm (FOA); optimization problem (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (28)

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