A Bayesian Method for Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasting of Photovoltaic Generation in Smart Grid Operation and Control

Antonio Bracale, Pierluigi Caramia, Guido Carpinelli, Anna Rita Di Fazio and Gabriella Ferruzzi
Additional contact information
Antonio Bracale: Department for Technologies, University Parthenope of Napoli, Centro Direzionale di Napoli, Is. C4, 80143 Napoli, Italy
Pierluigi Caramia: Department for Technologies, University Parthenope of Napoli, Centro Direzionale di Napoli, Is. C4, 80143 Napoli, Italy
Guido Carpinelli: Department of Electrical Engineering and of Information Technologies, University Federico II of Napoli, via Claudio 21, 80125 Napoli, Italy
Anna Rita Di Fazio: Department of Electrical and Information Engineering, University of Cassino and Southern Lazio, via Di Biasio 43, 03042 Cassino, Italy
Gabriella Ferruzzi: Department of Economical-Management Engineering, University Federico II of Napoli, Piazzale V. Tecchio 80, 80125 Napoli, Italy

Energies, 2013, vol. 6, issue 2, 1-15

Abstract: A new short-term probabilistic forecasting method is proposed to predict the probability density function of the hourly active power generated by a photovoltaic system. Firstly, the probability density function of the hourly clearness index is forecasted making use of a Bayesian auto regressive time series model; the model takes into account the dependence of the solar radiation on some meteorological variables, such as the cloud cover and humidity. Then, a Monte Carlo simulation procedure is used to evaluate the predictive probability density function of the hourly active power by applying the photovoltaic system model to the random sampling of the clearness index distribution. A numerical application demonstrates the effectiveness and advantages of the proposed forecasting method.

Keywords: smart grid; photovoltaic generation; clearness index; forecasting; probability density functions; autoregressive models; Bayesian inference (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (34)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/6/2/733/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/6/2/733/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jeners:v:6:y:2013:i:2:p:733-747:d:23477

Access Statistics for this article

Energies is currently edited by Ms. Agatha Cao

More articles in Energies from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().