Load Forecast Model Switching Scheme for Improved Robustnessto Changes in Building Energy Consumption Patterns

Jaeyeong Yoo and Kyeon Hur
Additional contact information
Jaeyeong Yoo: School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Yonsei University, Seoul, 120-749, Korea
Kyeon Hur: School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Yonsei University, Seoul, 120-749, Korea

Energies, 2013, vol. 6, issue 3, 1-15

Abstract: This paper presents a new, accurate load forecasting technique robust to fluctuations due to unusual load behavioral changes in buildings, i.e., the potential for small commercial buildings with heterogeneous stores. The proposed scheme is featured with two functional components: data classification by daily characteristics and automatic forecast model switching. The scheme extracts daily characteristics of the input load data and arranges the load data into weekday and weekend data. Forecasting is conducted based on a selected model among ARMAX (autoregressive moving average with exogenous variable) models with the processed input data. Kalman filtering is applied to estimate model parameters. The model-switching scheme monitors the accumulated error and substitutes a backup load model for the currently working model, when the accumulated error exceeds a threshold value, to reduce the increased bias error due to the change in the consumption pattern. This switching reinforces the limited performance of parameter estimation given a fixed structure and, thus, forecasting capability. The study results demonstrate that the proposed scheme is reasonably accurate and even robust to changes in the electricity use patterns. It should help improve the performance for building control systems for energy efficiency.

Keywords: load forecasting; data pattern classification; model-switching scheme (MSS); Kalman filtering; accumulated error; autoregressive moving average with exogenous variable (ARMAX) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/6/3/1329/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/6/3/1329/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jeners:v:6:y:2013:i:3:p:1329-1343:d:24003

Access Statistics for this article

Energies is currently edited by Ms. Agatha Cao

More articles in Energies from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().