Modeling Future Life-Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Environmental Impacts of Electricity Supplies in Brazil

Alexander T. Dale, André Frossard Pereira de Lucena, Joe Marriott, Bruno Soares Moreira Cesar Borba, Roberto Schaeffer and Melissa M. Bilec
Additional contact information
Alexander T. Dale: Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Pittsburgh, 3700 O'Hara St., Pittsburgh, PA 15260, USA
André Frossard Pereira de Lucena: Programa de Planejamento Energético, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Centro de Tecnologia, Bloco C, Sala 211, Cidade Universitária, Ilha do Fundão, Rio de Janeiro 21941-972, Brazil
Joe Marriott: Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Pittsburgh, 3700 O'Hara St., Pittsburgh, PA 15260, USA
Bruno Soares Moreira Cesar Borba: Departamento de Engenharia Elétrica, Universidade Federal Fluminense, Rua Passo da Pátria, Bloco D, Sala 509, São Domingos, Niteroi 24210-240, Brazil
Roberto Schaeffer: Programa de Planejamento Energético, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Centro de Tecnologia, Bloco C, Sala 211, Cidade Universitária, Ilha do Fundão, Rio de Janeiro 21941-972, Brazil
Melissa M. Bilec: Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Pittsburgh, 3700 O'Hara St., Pittsburgh, PA 15260, USA

Energies, 2013, vol. 6, issue 7, 1-27

Abstract: Brazil’s status as a rapidly developing country is visible in its need for more energy, including electricity. While the current electricity generation mix is primarily hydropower based, high-quality dam sites are diminishing and diversification to other sources is likely. We combined life-cycle data for electricity production with scenarios developed using the IAEA’s MESSAGE model to examine environmental impacts of future electricity generation under a baseline case and four side cases, using a Monte-Carlo approach to incorporate uncertainty in power plant performance and LCA impacts. Our results show that, under the cost-optimal base case scenario, Brazil’s GHGs from electricity (excluding hydroelectric reservoir emissions) rise 370% by 2040 relative to 2010, with the carbon intensity per MWh rising 100%. This rise would make Brazil’s carbon emissions targets difficult to meet without demand-side programs. Our results show a future electricity mix dominated by environmental tradeoffs in the use of large-scale renewables, questioning the use tropical hydropower and highlighting the need for additional work to assess and include ecosystem and social impacts, where information is currently sparse.

Keywords: life-cycle assessment (LCA); scenarios; Brazil; energy; climate change; Monte-Carlo analysis (MCA) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (11)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/6/7/3182/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/6/7/3182/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jeners:v:6:y:2013:i:7:p:3182-3208:d:26841

Access Statistics for this article

Energies is currently edited by Ms. Agatha Cao

More articles in Energies from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().