Lorenz Wind Disturbance Model Based on Grey Generated Components

Yagang Zhang, Jingyun Yang, Kangcheng Wang and Yinding Wang
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Yagang Zhang: State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
Jingyun Yang: State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
Kangcheng Wang: State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
Yinding Wang: Interdisciplinary Mathematics Institute, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC 29208, USA

Energies, 2014, vol. 7, issue 11, 1-16

Abstract: In order to meet the needs of wind speed prediction in wind farms, we consider the influence of random atmospheric disturbances on wind variations. Considering a simplified fluid convection mode, a Lorenz system can be employed as an atmospheric disturbance model. Here Lorenz disturbance is defined as the European norm of the solutions of the Lorenz equation. Grey generating and accumulated generating models are employed to explore the relationship between wind speed and its related disturbance series. We conclude that a linear or quadric polynomial generating model are optimal through the verification of short-term wind speed prediction in the Sotavento wind farm. The new proposed model not only greatly improves the precision of short-term wind speed prediction, but also has great significance for the maintenance and stability of wind power system operation.

Keywords: wind disturbance model; Lorenz equation; polynomial generating function; accumulated generating model; Rayleigh number; short-term wind speed prediction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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