Error Assessment of Solar Irradiance Forecasts and AC Power from Energy Conversion Model in Grid-Connected Photovoltaic Systems

Gianfranco Chicco, Valeria Cocina, Paolo Di Leo, Filippo Spertino and Alessandro Massi Pavan
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Gianfranco Chicco: Energy Department, Politecnico di Torino, corso Duca degli Abruzzi 24, Torino 10129, Italy
Valeria Cocina: Energy Department, Politecnico di Torino, corso Duca degli Abruzzi 24, Torino 10129, Italy
Paolo Di Leo: Energy Department, Politecnico di Torino, corso Duca degli Abruzzi 24, Torino 10129, Italy
Filippo Spertino: Energy Department, Politecnico di Torino, corso Duca degli Abruzzi 24, Torino 10129, Italy
Alessandro Massi Pavan: Department of Engineering and Architecture, University of Trieste, Via Valerio 10, Trieste 34127, Italy

Energies, 2015, vol. 9, issue 1, 1-27

Abstract: Availability of effective estimation of the power profiles of photovoltaic systems is essential for studying how to increase the share of intermittent renewable sources in the electricity mix of many countries. For this purpose, weather forecasts, together with historical data of the meteorological quantities, provide fundamental information. The weak point of the forecasts depends on variable sky conditions, when the clouds successively cover and uncover the solar disc. This causes remarkable positive and negative variations in the irradiance pattern measured at the photovoltaic (PV) site location. This paper starts from 1 to 3 days-ahead solar irradiance forecasts available during one year, with a few points for each day. These forecasts are interpolated to obtain more irradiance estimations per day. The estimated irradiance data are used to classify the sky conditions into clear, variable or cloudy. The results are compared with the outcomes of the same classification carried out with the irradiance measured in meteorological stations at two real PV sites. The occurrence of irradiance spikes in “broken cloud” conditions is identified and discussed. From the measured irradiance, the Alternating Current (AC) power injected into the grid at two PV sites is estimated by using a PV energy conversion model. The AC power errors resulting from the PV model with respect to on-site AC power measurements are shown and discussed.

Keywords: photovoltaic systems; weather forecasts; photovoltaic (PV) conversion model; power profiles; error assessment; distributed generation; renewable energy; irradiance spike (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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