Cost Analysis Method for Estimating Dynamic Reserve Considering Uncertainties in Supply and Demand

Kyung-bin Kwon, Hyeongon Park, Jae-Kun Lyu and Jong-Keun Park
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Kyung-bin Kwon: Electrical Engineering, Korea Military Academy (KMA), Seoul 01850, Korea
Hyeongon Park: Department of Statistics Institute of Engineering Research, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, Korea
Jae-Kun Lyu: Korean Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO), Naju 58217, Korea
Jong-Keun Park: Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, Korea

Energies, 2016, vol. 9, issue 10, 1-16

Abstract: The use of appropriate hourly reserve margins can maintain power system security by balancing supply and demand in the presence of errors in the forecast demand, generation outages, or errors in the forecast of wind power generation. Because the cost of unit commitment increases with larger reserve margins, cost analysis to determine the most economical reserve margin is an important issue in power system operation. Here, we define the “short-term reliability of balance” and describe a method to determine the reserve margin based on the short-term reliability of balance. We describe a case study, in which we calculate the reserve margin using this method with various standards of short-term reliability of balance. A cost analysis is then performed to determine the most economic standard, and a comparison between our method and a conventional method is carried out. The results show that our method with an economic short-term reliability of balance enables more reliable and efficient operation of the power system. Moreover, with an hourly reserve margin, we show that an increase in wind power generation can result in a significant decrease in the operating cost, which makes wind power generation economically viable.

Keywords: dynamic reserve; unit commitment; reliability; wind power generation; cost analysis; power system operation; uncertainty; generation outage (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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