Reimagining Peer-to-Peer Lending Sustainability: Unveiling Predictive Insights with Innovative Machine Learning Approaches for Loan Default Anticipation

Ly Nguyen, Mominul Ahsan () and Julfikar Haider
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Ly Nguyen: Emissis Ltd., 2 Ellerbeck Court, Stockley Business Park, Middlesbrough TS9 5PT, UK
Mominul Ahsan: Department of Computer Science, University of York, Deramore Lane, York YO10 5GH, UK
Julfikar Haider: Department of Engineering, Manchester Metropolitan University, John Dalton Building, Chester Street, Manchester M1 5GD, UK

FinTech, 2024, vol. 3, issue 1, 1-32

Abstract: Peer-to-peer lending, a novel element of Internet finance that links lenders and borrowers via online platforms, has generated large profits for investors. However, borrowers’ missed payments have negatively impacted the industry’s sustainable growth. It is imperative to create a system that can correctly predict loan defaults to lessen the damage brought on by defaulters. The goal of this study is to fill the gap in the literature by exploring the feasibility of developing prediction models for P2P loan defaults without relying heavily on personal data while also focusing on identifying key variables influencing borrowers’ repayment capacity through systematic feature selection and exploratory data analysis. Given this, this study aims to create a computational model that aids lenders in determining the approval or rejection of a loan application, relying on the financial data provided by applicants. The selected dataset, sourced from an open database, contains 8578 transaction records and includes 14 attributes related to financial information, with no personal data included. A loan dataset is first subjected to an in-depth exploratory data analysis to find behaviors connected to loan defaults. Subsequently, diverse and noteworthy machine learning classification algorithms, including Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, Decision Tree, Logistic Regression, Naïve Bayes, and XGBoost, were employed to build models capable of discerning borrowers who repay their loans from those who do not. Our findings indicate that borrowers who fail to comply with their lenders’ credit policies, pay elevated interest rates, and possess low FICO ratings are at a higher likelihood of defaulting. Furthermore, elevated risk is observed among clients who obtain loans for small businesses. All classification models, including XGBoost and Random Forest, successfully developed and performed satisfactorily and achieved an accuracy of over 80%. When the decision threshold is set to 0.4, the best performance for predicting loan defaulters is achieved using logistic regression, which accurately identifies 83% of the defaulted loans, with a recall of 83%, precision of 21% and f1 score of 33%.

Keywords: Machine Learning; Loan Defaults; Logistic Regression; Support Vector Machine; Naïve Bayes; Decision Tree; Random Forest; XGBoost (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C6 F3 G O3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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