Gutenberg–Richter B-Value Time Series Forecasting: A Weighted Likelihood Approach

Matteo Taroni, Giorgio Vocalelli and Andrea De Polis
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Matteo Taroni: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via di Vigna Murata 605, 00143 Rome, Italy
Giorgio Vocalelli: Department of Economics and Finance, Tor Vergata University of Rome, Via Columbia 2, 00133 Rome, Italy

Forecasting, 2021, vol. 3, issue 3, 1-9

Abstract: We introduce a novel approach to estimate the temporal variation of the b-value parameter of the Gutenberg–Richter law, based on the weighted likelihood approach. This methodology allows estimating the b-value based on the full history of the available data, within a data-driven setting. We test this methodology against the classical “rolling window” approach using a high-definition Italian seismic catalogue as well as a global catalogue of high magnitudes. The weighted likelihood approach outperforms competing methods, and measures the optimal amount of past information relevant to the estimation.

Keywords: earthquake forecasting; time-series analysis; statistical seismology (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: A1 B4 C0 C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C8 M0 Q2 Q3 Q4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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