Economics at your fingertips  

Improving Hotel Room Demand Forecasts for Vienna across Hotel Classes and Forecast Horizons: Single Models and Combination Techniques Based on Encompassing Tests

Ulrich Gunter
Additional contact information
Ulrich Gunter: Department of Tourism and Service Management, Modul University Vienna, 1190 Vienna, Austria

Forecasting, 2021, vol. 3, issue 4, 1-36

Abstract: The present study employs daily data made available by the STR SHARE Center covering the period from 1 January 2010 to 31 January 2020 for six Viennese hotel classes and their total. The forecast variable of interest is hotel room demand. As forecast models, (1) Seasonal Naïve, (2) Error Trend Seasonal (ETS), (3) Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), (4) Trigonometric Seasonality, Box–Cox Transformation, ARMA Errors, Trend and Seasonal Components (TBATS), (5) Seasonal Neural Network Autoregression (Seasonal NNAR), and (6) Seasonal NNAR with an external regressor (seasonal naïve forecast of the inflation-adjusted ADR) are employed. Forecast evaluation is carried out for forecast horizons h = 1, 7, 30, and 90 days ahead based on rolling windows. After conducting forecast encompassing tests, (a) mean, (b) median, (c) regression-based weights, (d) Bates–Granger weights, and (e) Bates–Granger ranks are used as forecast combination techniques. In the relative majority of cases (i.e., in 13 of 28), combined forecasts based on Bates–Granger weights and on Bates–Granger ranks provide the highest level of forecast accuracy in terms of typical measures. Finally, the employed methodology represents a fully replicable toolkit for practitioners in terms of both forecast models and forecast combination techniques.

Keywords: forecast combination; forecast encompassing tests; hotel room demand forecasting; hotel classes; neural network autoregression; multiple seasonal patterns (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: A1 B4 C0 C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C8 M0 Q2 Q3 Q4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link) (application/pdf) (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

Access Statistics for this article

Forecasting is currently edited by Ms. Joss Chen

More articles in Forecasting from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().

Page updated 2023-08-11
Handle: RePEc:gam:jforec:v:3:y:2021:i:4:p:54-919:d:689837