Application of Agent-Based Modeling in Agricultural Productivity in Rural Area of Bahir Dar, Ethiopia

Sardorbek Musayev, Jonathan Mellor, Tara Walsh and Emmanouil Anagnostou
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Sardorbek Musayev: The Center for Sustainable Agriculture, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT 05405, USA
Jonathan Mellor: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Massachusetts Dartmouth, Dartmouth, MA 02747, USA
Tara Walsh: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06268, USA
Emmanouil Anagnostou: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06268, USA

Forecasting, 2022, vol. 4, issue 1, 1-22

Abstract: Effective weather forecast information helps smallholder farmers improve their adaptation to climate uncertainties and crop productivity. The main objective of this study was to assess the impact of weather forecast adoption on crop productivity. We coupled agent-based and crop productivity models to study the impact of farmers’ management decisions on maize productivity under different rainfall scenarios in Ethiopia. A household survey was conducted with 100 households from 5 villages and was used to validate the crop model. The agent-based model (ABM) analyzed the farmers’ behaviors in crop management under different dry, wet, and normal rainfall conditions. ABM results and crop data from the survey were then used as input data sources for the crop model. Our results show that farming decisions based on weather forecast information improved yield productivity from 17% to 30% under dry and wet seasons, respectively. The impact of adoption rates due to farmers’ intervillage interactions, connections, radio, agriculture extension services, and forecast accuracy brought additional crop yields into the Kebele compared to non-forecast users. Our findings help local policy makers to understand the impact of the forecast information. Results of this study can be used to develop agricultural programs where rainfed agriculture is common.

Keywords: weather forecast information use; agricultural productivity; agent-based modeling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: A1 B4 C0 C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C8 M0 Q2 Q3 Q4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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