Can Groups Improve Expert Economic and Financial Forecasts?

Warwick Smith, Anca M. Hanea and Mark A. Burgman
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Warwick Smith: School of Social and Political Sciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia
Anca M. Hanea: Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis, School of BioSciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia
Mark A. Burgman: Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, London SW7 1NE, UK

Forecasting, 2022, vol. 4, issue 3, 1-18

Abstract: Economic and financial forecasts are important for business planning and government policy but are notoriously challenging. We take advantage of recent advances in individual and group judgement, and a data set of economic and financial forecasts compiled over 25 years, consisting of multiple individual and institutional estimates, to test the claim that nominal groups will make more accurate economic and financial forecast than individuals. We validate the forecasts using the subsequent published (real) outcomes, explore the performance of nominal groups against institutions, identify potential superforecasters and discuss the benefits of implementing structured judgment techniques to improve economic and financial forecasts.

Keywords: economic forecasting; expert opinion; economic survey; macroeconomics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: A1 B4 C0 C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C8 M0 Q2 Q3 Q4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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