Extracting Statistical Properties of Solar and Photovoltaic Power Production for the Scope of Building a Sophisticated Forecasting Framework

Joseph Ndong () and Ted Soubdhan
Additional contact information
Joseph Ndong: Faculty of Sciences and Techniques, Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, University Cheikh Anta Diop of Dakar, Dakar 10700, Senegal
Ted Soubdhan: Laboratoire LARGE, Faculty of Sciences, Department of Physics, University of Antilles, 97157 Pointe-à-Pitre, France

Forecasting, 2022, vol. 5, issue 1, 1-21

Abstract: Building a sophisticated forecasting framework for solar and photovoltaic power production in geographic zones with severe meteorological conditions is very challenging. This difficulty is linked to the high variability of the global solar radiation on which the energy production depends. A suitable forecasting framework might take into account this high variability and could be able to adjust/re-adjust model parameters to reduce sensitivity to estimation errors. The framework should also be able to re-adapt the model parameters whenever the atmospheric conditions change drastically or suddenly—this changes according to microscopic variations. This work presents a new methodology to analyze carefully the meaningful features of global solar radiation variability and extract some relevant information about the probabilistic laws which governs its dynamic evolution. The work establishes a framework able to identify the macroscopic variations from the solar irradiance. The different categories of variability correspond to different levels of meteorological conditions and events and can occur in different time intervals. Thereafter, the tool will be able to extract the abrupt changes, corresponding to microscopic variations, inside each level of variability. The methodology is based on a combination of probability and possibility theory. An unsupervised clustering technique based on a Gaussian mixture model is proposed to identify, first, the categories of variability and, using a hidden Markov model, we study the temporal dependency of the process to identify the dynamic evolution of the solar irradiance as different temporal states. Finally, by means of some transformations of probabilities to possibilities, we identify the abrupt changes in the solar radiation. The study is performed in Guadeloupe, where we have a long record of global solar radiation data recorded at 1 Hertz.

Keywords: bayesian inference; GMM; HMM; viterbi decoder; possibility theory (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: A1 B4 C0 C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C8 M0 Q2 Q3 Q4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2571-9394/5/1/1/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2571-9394/5/1/1/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jforec:v:5:y:2022:i:1:p:1-21:d:1018537

Access Statistics for this article

Forecasting is currently edited by Ms. Joss Chen

More articles in Forecasting from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().