Projected Future Flooding Pattern of Wabash River in Indiana and Fountain Creek in Colorado: An Assessment Utilizing Bias-Corrected CMIP6 Climate Data

Swarupa Paudel, Neekita Joshi and Ajay Kalra ()
Additional contact information
Swarupa Paudel: School of Civil, Environmental, and Infrastructure Engineering, Southern Illinois University, 1230 Lincoln Drive, Carbondale, IL 62901, USA
Neekita Joshi: STV Inc., 1818 Market St, Suite 2300, Philadelphia, PA 19103, USA
Ajay Kalra: School of Civil, Environmental, and Infrastructure Engineering, Southern Illinois University, 1230 Lincoln Drive, Carbondale, IL 62901, USA

Forecasting, 2023, vol. 5, issue 2, 1-19

Abstract: Climate change is considered one of the biggest challenges around the globe as it has been causing alterations in hydrological extremes. Climate change and variability have an impact on future streamflow conditions, water quality, and ecological balance, which are further aggravated by anthropogenic activities such as changes in land use. This study intends to provide insight into potential changes in future streamflow conditions leading to changes in flooding patterns. Flooding is an inevitable, frequently occurring natural event that affects the environment and the socio-economic structure of its surroundings. This study evaluates the flooding pattern and inundation mapping of two different rivers, Wabash River in Indiana and Fountain Creek in Colorado, using the observed gage data and different climate models. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) streamflow data are considered for the future forecast of the flood. The cumulative distribution function transformation (CDF-t) method is used to correct bias in the CMIP6 streamflow data. The Generalized Extreme Value (L-Moment) method is used for the estimation of the frequency of flooding for 100-year and 500-year return periods. Civil GeoHECRAS is used for each flood event to map flood extent and examine flood patterns. The findings from this study show that there will be a rapid increase in flooding events even in small creeks soon in the upcoming years. This study seeks to assist floodplain managers in strategic planning to adopt state-of-the-art information and provide a sustainable strategy to regions with similar difficulties for floodplain management, to improve socioeconomic life, and to promote environmental sustainability.

Keywords: discharge; Civil GeoHECRAS; CMIP6; CDF-t bias correction; flood inundation maps; floodplain area (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: A1 B4 C0 C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C8 M0 Q2 Q3 Q4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2571-9394/5/2/22/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2571-9394/5/2/22/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jforec:v:5:y:2023:i:2:p:22-423:d:1125244

Access Statistics for this article

Forecasting is currently edited by Ms. Joss Chen

More articles in Forecasting from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().