A Composite Tool for Forecasting El Niño: The Case of the 2023–2024 Event

Costas Varotsos (), Nicholas V. Sarlis, Yuri Mazei, Damir Saldaev and Maria Efstathiou
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Costas Varotsos: Department of Biology, Shenzhen MSU-BIT University, Shenzhen 518172, China
Nicholas V. Sarlis: Section of Condensed Matter Physics, Department of Physics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, 15784 Zografos, Greece
Yuri Mazei: Department of Biology, Shenzhen MSU-BIT University, Shenzhen 518172, China
Damir Saldaev: Department of Biology, Shenzhen MSU-BIT University, Shenzhen 518172, China
Maria Efstathiou: Department of Environmental Physics and Meteorology, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, 15784 Zografos, Greece

Forecasting, 2024, vol. 6, issue 1, 1-17

Abstract: Remotely sensed data play a crucial role in monitoring the El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is an oceanic-atmospheric phenomenon occurring quasi-periodically with several impacts worldwide, such as specific biological and global climate responses. Since 1980, Earth has witnessed three strong ENSO events (1982–1983, 1997–1998, 2015–2016). In September 2022, La Niña entered its third year and was unlikely to continue through 2024. Instead, since 2022, forecasts have pointed to a transition from La Niña to a Neutral phase in the summer or late 2023. The onset of El Niño occurred around April 2023, and it is anticipated by sophisticated models to be a strong event through the Northern Hemisphere winter (December 2023–February 2024). The aim of this study is to demonstrate the ability of the combination of two new methods to improve the accuracy of the above claim because El Niño apart from climate anomalies, significantly impacts Earth’s ecosystems and human societies, regulating the spread of diseases by insects (e.g., malaria and dengue fever), and influencing nutrients, phytoplankton biomass, and primary productivity. This is done by exploring first the previous major El Niño events in the period January 1876–July 2023. Our calculations show that the ongoing 2023–2024 El Niño will not be the strongest.

Keywords: El Niño; non-linear dynamics; natural time analysis; symmetry breaking; receiver operating characteristics; nowcasting; extreme events; entropy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: A1 B4 C0 C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C8 M0 Q2 Q3 Q4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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