Modeling CO 2 Emission Forecasting in Energy Consumption of the Industrial Building Sector under Sustainability Policy in Thailand: Enhancing the LISREL-LGM Model

Chaiyan Junsiri (), Pruethsan Sutthichaimethee and Nathaporn Phong-a-ran
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Chaiyan Junsiri: Department of Agricultural Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Khon Kaen University, Khon Kaen 40002, Thailand
Pruethsan Sutthichaimethee: Faculty of Economics, Chulalongkorn University, Wang Mai, Khet Pathum Wan, Bangkok 10330, Thailand
Nathaporn Phong-a-ran: Faculty of Business Administration and Information Technology, Rajamangala University of Technology Isan, Khon Kaen 40000, Thailand

Forecasting, 2024, vol. 6, issue 3, 1-17

Abstract: This research aims to study and develop a model to demonstrate the causal relationships of factors used to forecast CO 2 emissions from energy consumption in the industrial building sector and to make predictions for the next 10 years (2024–2033). This aligns with Thailand’s goals for sustainability development, as outlined in the green economy objectives. The research employs a quantitative research approach, utilizing Linear Structural Relationships based on a Latent Growth Model (LISREL-LGM model) which is a valuable tool for efficient country management towards predefined green economy objectives by 2033. The research findings reveal continuous significant growth in the past economic sector (1990–2023), leading to subsequent growth in the social sector. Simultaneously, this growth has had a continuous detrimental impact on the environment, primarily attributed to the economic growth in the industrial building sector. Consequently, the research indicates that maintaining current policies would result in CO 2 emissions from energy consumption in the industrial building sector exceeding the carrying capacity. Specifically, the growth rate (2033/2024) would increase by 28.59%, resulting in a surpassing emission of 70.73 Mt CO 2 Eq. (2024–2033), exceeding the designated carrying capacity of 60.5 Mt CO 2 Eq. (2024–2033). Therefore, the research proposes strategies for country management to achieve sustainability, suggesting the implementation of new scenario policies in the industrial building sector. This course of action would lead to a reduction in CO 2 emissions (2024–2033) from energy consumption in the industrial building sector to 58.27 Mt CO 2 Eq., demonstrating a decreasing growth rate below the carrying capacity. This underscores the efficacy and appropriateness of the LISREL-LGM model employed in this research for guiding decision making towards green economy objectives in the future.

Keywords: industrial building; sustainability; scenario policy; LISREL model; energy consumption (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: A1 B4 C0 C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C8 M0 Q2 Q3 Q4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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