An In-Depth Look at Rising Temperatures: Forecasting with Advanced Time Series Models in Major US Regions

Kameron B. Kinast () and Ernest Fokoué
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Kameron B. Kinast: School of Mathematics and Statistics, Rochester Institute of Technology, Rochester, NY 14623, USA
Ernest Fokoué: School of Mathematics and Statistics, Rochester Institute of Technology, Rochester, NY 14623, USA

Forecasting, 2024, vol. 6, issue 3, 1-24

Abstract: With growing concerns over climate change, accurately predicting temperature trends is crucial for informed decision-making and policy development. In this study, we perform a comprehensive comparative analysis of four advanced time series forecasting models—Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Exponential Smoothing (ETS), Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), and Gaussian Processes (GP)—to assess changes in minimum and maximum temperatures across four key regions in the United States. Our analysis includes hyperparameter optimization for each model to ensure peak performance. The results indicate that the MLP model outperforms the other models in terms of accuracy for temperature forecasting. Utilizing this best-performing model, we conduct temperature projections to evaluate the hypothesis that the rates of change in temperatures are greater than zero. Our findings confirm a positive rate of change in both maximum and minimum temperatures, suggesting a consistent upward trend over time. This research underscores the critical importance of refining time series forecasting models to address the challenges posed by climate change and supporting the development of effective strategies to mitigate the impacts of rising temperatures. The insights gained from this work emphasize the need for continuous advancement in predictive modeling techniques to better understand and respond to the dynamics of climate change.

Keywords: time series forecasting; temperature trends; ARIMA; exponential smoothing; Multilayer Perceptron; Gaussian Processes (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: A1 B4 C0 C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C8 M0 Q2 Q3 Q4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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