Evaluating the Potential of Copulas for Modeling Correlated Scenarios for Hydro, Wind, and Solar Energy

Anderson M. Iung, Fernando L. Cyrino Oliveira (), Andre L. M. Marcato and Guilherme A. A. Pereira
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Anderson M. Iung: Industrial Engineering Department, PUC-Rio-Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro, Rua Marquês de São Vicente, 225 Gávea, Rio de Janeiro 22451-900, RJ, Brazil
Fernando L. Cyrino Oliveira: Industrial Engineering Department, PUC-Rio-Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro, Rua Marquês de São Vicente, 225 Gávea, Rio de Janeiro 22451-900, RJ, Brazil
Andre L. M. Marcato: Department of Electrical Energy, UFJF-Federal University of Juiz de Fora, Rua José Lourenço Kelmer, s/n-São Pedro, Juiz de Fora 36036-900, MG, Brazil
Guilherme A. A. Pereira: Department of Economics, UFES-Federal University of Espírito Santo, Av. Fernando Ferrari 514, Vitória 29075-910, ES, Brazil

Forecasting, 2025, vol. 7, issue 1, 1-21

Abstract: The increasing global adoption of variable renewable energy (VRE) sources has transformed the use of forecasting, scenario planning, and other techniques for managing their inherent generation uncertainty and interdependencies. What were once desirable enhancements are now fundamental requirements. This is more prominent in Brazil, given the large hydro capacity that has been installed. Given the need to understand the interdependencies within variable renewable energy systems, copula-based techniques are receiving increasing consideration. The objective is to explore and model the correlation and complementarity, based on the copula approach, evaluating the potential of this methodology considering a case test composed of hydro, wind, and solar assets. The proposed framework simulated joint scenarios for monthly natural energy (streamflows transformed into energy), wind speed and solar radiation, applied to a small case test, considering historical data from the Brazilian energy system. The results demonstrate that simulated scenarios are validated by their ability to replicate key statistical attributes of the historical record, as well as the interplay and complementarity among hydrology, wind speed, and solar radiation.

Keywords: renewable energy; copulas; wind generation; hydro generation; solar generation; dependence; interdependence; correlation; forecasting; scenario generation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: A1 B4 C0 C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C8 M0 Q2 Q3 Q4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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