Unsteady Multi-Element Time Series Analysis and Prediction Based on Spatial-Temporal Attention and Error Forecast Fusion

Xiaofan Wang and Lingyu Xu
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Xiaofan Wang: School of Computer Engineering and Science, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200444, China
Lingyu Xu: School of Computer Engineering and Science, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200444, China

Future Internet, 2020, vol. 12, issue 2, 1-13

Abstract: Harmful algal blooms (HABs) often cause great harm to fishery production and the safety of human lives. Therefore, the detection and prediction of HABs has become an important issue. Machine learning has been increasingly used to predict HABs at home and abroad. However, few of them can capture the sudden change of Chl-a in advance and handle the long-term dependencies appropriately. In order to address these challenges, the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) based spatial-temporal attentions model for Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration prediction is proposed, a model which can capture the correlation between various factors and Chl-a adaptively and catch dynamic temporal information from previous time intervals for making predictions. The model can also capture the stage of Chl-a when values soar as red tide breaks out in advance. Due to the instability of the current Chl-a concentration prediction model, the model is also applied to make a prediction about the forecast reliability, to have a basic understanding of the range and fluctuation of model errors and provide a reference to describe the range of marine disasters. The data used in the experiment is retrieved from Fujian Marine Forecasts Station from 2009 to 2011 and is combined into 8-dimension data. Results show that the proposed approach performs better than other Chl-a prediction algorithms (such as Attention LSTM and Seq2seq and back propagation). The result of error prediction also reveals that the error forecast method possesses established advantages for red tides prevention and control.

Keywords: long short-term memory (LSTM); attention; harmful algal blooms (HABs); Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a); spatial; temporal; error forecast (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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