Trend Prediction of Event Popularity from Microblogs

Xujian Zhao and Wei Li
Additional contact information
Xujian Zhao: School of Computer Science and Technology, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang 621010, China
Wei Li: School of Computer Science and Technology, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang 621010, China

Future Internet, 2021, vol. 13, issue 9, 1-13

Abstract: Owing to rapid development of the Internet and the rise of the big data era, microblog has become the main means for people to spread and obtain information. If people can accurately predict the development trend of a microblog event, it will be of great significance for the government to carry out public relations activities on network event supervision and guide the development of microblog event reasonably for network crisis. This paper presents effective solutions to deal with trend prediction of microblog events’ popularity. Firstly, by selecting the influence factors and quantifying the weight of each factor with an information entropy algorithm, the microblog event popularity is modeled. Secondly, the singular spectrum analysis is carried out to decompose and reconstruct the time series of the popularity of microblog event. Then, the box chart method is used to divide the popularity of microblog event into various trend spaces. In addition, this paper exploits the Bi-LSTM model to deal with trend prediction with a sequence to label model. Finally, the comparative experimental analysis is carried out on two real data sets crawled from Sina Weibo platform. Compared to three comparative methods, the experimental results show that our proposal improves F1-score by up to 39%.

Keywords: popularity of microblog event; information entropy model; singular spectrum analysis; Bi-LSTM (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/1999-5903/13/9/220/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/1999-5903/13/9/220/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jftint:v:13:y:2021:i:9:p:220-:d:621078

Access Statistics for this article

Future Internet is currently edited by Ms. Grace You

More articles in Future Internet from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().