Machine Learning for Bankruptcy Prediction in the American Stock Market: Dataset and Benchmarks

Gianfranco Lombardo, Mattia Pellegrino, George Adosoglou, Stefano Cagnoni, Panos M. Pardalos and Agostino Poggi ()
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Gianfranco Lombardo: Department of Engineering and Architecture, University of Parma, 43124 Parma, Italy
Mattia Pellegrino: Department of Engineering and Architecture, University of Parma, 43124 Parma, Italy
George Adosoglou: Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
Stefano Cagnoni: Department of Engineering and Architecture, University of Parma, 43124 Parma, Italy
Panos M. Pardalos: Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
Agostino Poggi: Department of Engineering and Architecture, University of Parma, 43124 Parma, Italy

Future Internet, 2022, vol. 14, issue 8, 1-23

Abstract: Predicting corporate bankruptcy is one of the fundamental tasks in credit risk assessment. In particular, since the 2007/2008 financial crisis, it has become a priority for most financial institutions, practitioners, and academics. The recent advancements in machine learning (ML) enabled the development of several models for bankruptcy prediction. The most challenging aspect of this task is dealing with the class imbalance due to the rarity of bankruptcy events in the real economy. Furthermore, a fair comparison in the literature is difficult to make because bankruptcy datasets are not publicly available and because studies often restrict their datasets to specific economic sectors and markets and/or time periods. In this work, we investigated the design and the application of different ML models to two different tasks related to default events: (a) estimating survival probabilities over time; (b) default prediction using time-series accounting data with different lengths. The entire dataset used for the experiments has been made available to the scientific community for further research and benchmarking purposes. The dataset pertains to 8262 different public companies listed on the American stock market between 1999 and 2018. Finally, in light of the results obtained, we critically discuss the most interesting metrics as proposed benchmarks for future studies.

Keywords: bankruptcy prediction; deep learning; multi-head; LSTM; machine learning; stock market (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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