Monitoring and Forecasting of Coastal Erosion in the Context of Climate Change in Saint Louis (Senegal)

Mamadou Adama Sarr (), Ibrahima Pouye, Aissatou Sene, Iñigo Aniel-Quiroga, Abdoul A. Diouf, Fatim Samb, Mamadou L. Ndiaye and Moussa Sall
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Mamadou Adama Sarr: Laboratoire d’Études et de Recherche en Statistique et Développement, UFR de Sciences Appliquées et de Technologie, Département de Mathématiques Appliquées, Université Gaston Berger of Saint-Louis, Dakar BP 234, Senegal
Ibrahima Pouye: West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL), University of Lomé DRP Climate Change Disaster Risk Management, Lomé 1515, Togo
Aissatou Sene: Centre de Suivi Ecologique, Dakar BP 15532, Senegal
Iñigo Aniel-Quiroga: IHCantabria–Instituto de Hidráulica Ambiental de la Universidad de Cantabria, 48940 Santander, Spain
Abdoul A. Diouf: Centre de Suivi Ecologique, Dakar BP 15532, Senegal
Fatim Samb: Centre de Suivi Ecologique, Dakar BP 15532, Senegal
Mamadou L. Ndiaye: Centre de Suivi Ecologique, Dakar BP 15532, Senegal
Moussa Sall: Centre de Suivi Ecologique, Dakar BP 15532, Senegal

Geographies, 2024, vol. 4, issue 2, 1-17

Abstract: Owing to its unique physical and socio-economic characteristics, the Saint Louis region stands out as one of the most susceptible areas in Senegal to the adverse impacts of coastal erosion. The dynamics of erosion in this region are significantly influenced by the Langue de Barbarie (LB), a sand spit formed at the mouth of the Senegal River. Initially, in 2003, a 4 m wide artificial breach was strategically introduced to mitigate flooding; however, sediment dynamics expanded it to 6 km by 2020, thereby affecting the entire region. This study delves into the coastline change of the LB, specifically divided into three zones (LB-1, LB-2, and LB-3), spanning the period from 1994 to 2042. Leveraging Geographic Information System (GIS) and remote sensing techniques, our investigation reveals that, prior to the breach’s creation, the average dynamic coastline rates in zones LB-1, LB-2, and LB-3 were estimated at 4.4, 5.9, and 4.4 m/year, respectively. Subsequent to the breach, these rates shifted to −1.2, 8.4, and −2.7 m/year, with the most significant erosion observed alongshore of LB-3 at −6.6 m/year during the period 2002–2012. Projecting into 2032, LB-1 and LB-3 are anticipated to experience erosion rates of −11.5 and −26.8 m/year, respectively, while the LB-2 records an estimated accretion rate of 8.41 m/year. Eroded areas are expected to total 571,458 m 2 , while accumulated areas are expected to total 67,191 m 2 . By 2042, zones LB-1, LB-2, and LB-3 are expected to experience erosion rates of −23 and −53.6 m/year, resulting in the erosion of 1,021,963 m 2 and the accumulation of 94,930 m 2 with a dynamic rate of 168.2 m/year in zone LB-3. These results have significant implications for solving the urgent issue of coastal erosion in LB.

Keywords: coastal erosion; erosion rate prediction; climate change; Saint Louis; West Africa (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q15 Q5 Q53 Q54 Q56 Q57 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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