Seasonal, Decadal, and El Niño-Southern Oscillation-Related Trends and Anomalies in Rainfall and Dry Spells during the Agricultural Season in Central Malawi

Medrina Linda Mloza Banda (), Wim Cornelis and Henry R. Mloza Banda
Additional contact information
Medrina Linda Mloza Banda: Ministry of Agriculture Headquarters, Capital Hill, P.O. Box 30134, Lilongwe 3, Malawi
Wim Cornelis: Department of Soil Management and Care, Faculty of Bioscience Engineering, Ghent University, St. Pietersnieuwstraat 33, 9000 Gent, Belgium
Henry R. Mloza Banda: Department of Crop Production, Faculty of Agriculture, Luyengo Campus, University of Eswatini, Luyengo M205, Eswatini

Geographies, 2024, vol. 4, issue 3, 1-20

Abstract: As governments continue to address climate change when formulating policy, there remains a need to determine if such a change exists in the historical record to inform clear indices for monitoring the present climate for site-specific interventions. This study characterised trends and anomalies in rainfall and dry spells, providing local information often projected from satellites or regional data in data-scarce regions. From 1961 to 2007, daily rainfall records in Central Malawi were used to calculate indices for low-(Balaka), medium-(Bunda, Chitedze, KIA), and high-altitude (Dedza) sites, which were then subjected to Mann–Kendall’s, Cramer’s, and Spearman-Rho’s trend tests. Significant decreasing trends in terms of wet days and growing season length were evident across locations. Seasonal and extreme rainfall, dry spells, and inter-seasonal and near-decadal anomalies were not consistently or inevitably significant. Unexpectedly, rainfall anomalies were largest in Bunda and KIA, which have mild climatic regimes, while the lowest were in Balaka, a rainfall-averse zone. The relationship between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and extreme rainfall and dry spell events did not reach statistical significance. In conclusion, extreme precipitation and dry spell events show varied intensities and proportions rather than increased frequency. The disparate results largely justify the need for in-depth local-scale assessments for agroclimatic applications.

Keywords: climate; Cramer’s test; dry spells; ENSO; extreme rainfall; Malawi; Mann–Kendall test; Spearman-Rho test (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q15 Q5 Q53 Q54 Q56 Q57 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2673-7086/4/3/30/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2673-7086/4/3/30/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jgeogr:v:4:y:2024:i:3:p:30-582:d:1461228

Access Statistics for this article

Geographies is currently edited by Ms. Fannie Xu

More articles in Geographies from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().