Advancing Land Use Modeling with Rice Cropping Intensity: A Geospatial Study on the Shrinking Paddy Fields in Indonesia

Laju Gandharum (), Djoko Mulyo Hartono, Heri Sadmono, Hartanto Sanjaya, Lena Sumargana, Anindita Diah Kusumawardhani, Fauziah Alhasanah, Dionysius Bryan Sencaki and Nugraheni Setyaningrum
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Laju Gandharum: Research Center for Geoinformatics (PRGI), National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), Kawasan Sains dan Teknologi (KST) Samaun Samadikun, Jl. Cisitu Sangkuriang, Bandung 40135, Indonesia
Djoko Mulyo Hartono: School of Environmental Science, Universitas Indonesia (UI), Jl. Salemba Raya No. 4, Kampus UI Salemba, Jakarta Pusat 10430, Indonesia
Heri Sadmono: Research Center for Geoinformatics (PRGI), National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), Kawasan Sains dan Teknologi (KST) Samaun Samadikun, Jl. Cisitu Sangkuriang, Bandung 40135, Indonesia
Hartanto Sanjaya: Research Center for Geoinformatics (PRGI), National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), Kawasan Sains dan Teknologi (KST) Samaun Samadikun, Jl. Cisitu Sangkuriang, Bandung 40135, Indonesia
Lena Sumargana: Research Center for Limnology and Water Resources, BRIN, Gedung Inderaja Lantai 1, Kawasan Sains dan Teknologi (KST) Soekarno, Jl. Raya Bogor Km. 46 Cibinong, Bogor 16911, Indonesia
Anindita Diah Kusumawardhani: Center for Standardization and Institutions, Geospatial Information Agency (BIG), Kawasan Sains dan Teknologi (KST) Soekarno, Jl. Raya Bogor Km. 46 Cibinong, Bogor 16911, Indonesia
Fauziah Alhasanah: Directorate of Laboratory Management, Research Facilities, and Science and Technology Park (DPLFRKST), BRIN, Gedung Genomik Lantai 1, Kawasan Sains dan Teknologi (KST) Soekarno, Jl. Raya Bogor Km. 46 Cibinong, Bogor 16911, Indonesia
Dionysius Bryan Sencaki: Bureau for Organization and Human Resources, BRIN, Gedung BJ Habibie, Jl. M.H. Thamrin No.8, RW.1, Kb. Sirih, Kec. Menteng, Kota Jakarta Pusat, Daerah Khusus Ibukota Jakarta 10340, Indonesia
Nugraheni Setyaningrum: Research Center for Geoinformatics (PRGI), National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), Kawasan Sains dan Teknologi (KST) Samaun Samadikun, Jl. Cisitu Sangkuriang, Bandung 40135, Indonesia

Geographies, 2025, vol. 5, issue 3, 1-27

Abstract: Indonesia faces significant challenges in meeting food security targets due to rapid agricultural land loss, with approximately 1.22 million hectares of rice fields converted between 1990 and 2022. Therefore, this study developed a prediction model for the loss of rice fields by 2030, incorporating land productivity attributes, specifically rice cropping intensity/RCI, using geospatial technology—a novel method with a resolution of approximately 10 m for quantifying ecosystem service (ES) impacts. Land use/land cover data from Landsat images (2013, 2020, 2024) were classified using the Random Forest algorithm on Google Earth Engine. The prediction model was developed using a Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network and Markov Cellular Automata (MLP-NN Markov-CA) algorithms. Additionally, time series Sentinel-1A satellite imagery was processed using K-means and a hierarchical clustering analysis to map rice fields and their RCI. The validation process confirmed high model robustness, with an MLP-NN Markov-CA accuracy and Kappa coefficient of 83.90% and 0.91, respectively. The present study, which was conducted in Indramayu Regency (West Java), predicted that 1602.73 hectares of paddy fields would be lost within 2020–2030, specifically 980.54 hectares (61.18%) and 622.19 hectares (38.82%) with 2 RCI and 1 RCI, respectively. This land conversion directly threatens ES, resulting in a projected loss of 83,697.95 tons of rice production, which indicates a critical degradation of service provisioning. The findings provide actionable insights for land use planning to reduce agricultural land conversion while outlining the urgency of safeguarding ES values. The adopted method is applicable to regions with similar characteristics.

Keywords: land use change; time series Sentinel-1A; food security; machine learning; agricultural intensification; farmland protection (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q15 Q5 Q53 Q54 Q56 Q57 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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