A Rainfall- and Temperature-Driven Abundance Model for Aedes albopictus Populations

Annelise Tran, Grégory L'Ambert, Guillaume Lacour, Romain Benoît, Marie Demarchi, Myriam Cros, Priscilla Cailly, Mélaine Aubry-Kientz, Thomas Balenghien and Pauline Ezanno
Additional contact information
Annelise Tran: CIRAD, UPR AGIRs, Montpellier F-34398, France
Grégory L'Ambert: EID Méditerranée, Montpellier F-34184, France
Guillaume Lacour: EID Méditerranée, Montpellier F-34184, France
Romain Benoît: EID Méditerranée, Montpellier F-34184, France
Marie Demarchi: SIRS, Montpellier F-34093, France
Myriam Cros: EID Méditerranée, Montpellier F-34184, France
Priscilla Cailly: CIRAD, UPR AGIRs, Montpellier F-34398, France
Mélaine Aubry-Kientz: INRA, UMR1300 Biologie, épidémiologie et analyse de risques en santé animale, Nantes F-44307, France
Thomas Balenghien: CIRAD, UMR CMAEE, Montpellier F-34398, France
Pauline Ezanno: INRA, UMR1300 Biologie, épidémiologie et analyse de risques en santé animale, Nantes F-44307, France

IJERPH, 2013, vol. 10, issue 5, 1-22

Abstract: The mosquito Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus ( Skuse ) ( Diptera: Culicidae ) is an invasive species which has colonized Southern Europe in the last two decades. As it is a competent vector for several arboviruses, its spread is of increasing public health concern, and there is a need for appropriate monitoring tools. In this paper, we have developed a modelling approach to predict mosquito abundance over time, and identify the main determinants of mosquito population dynamics. The model is temperature- and rainfall-driven, takes into account egg diapause during unfavourable periods, and was used to model the population dynamics of Ae. albopictus in the French Riviera since 2008. Entomological collections of egg stage from six locations in Nice conurbation were used for model validation. We performed a sensitivity analysis to identify the key parameters of the mosquito population dynamics. Results showed that the model correctly predicted entomological field data (Pearson r correlation coefficient values range from 0.73 to 0.93). The model’s main control points were related to adult’s mortality rates, the carrying capacity in pupae of the environment, and the beginning of the unfavourable period. The proposed model can be efficiently used as a tool to predict Ae. albopictus population dynamics, and to assess the efficiency of different control strategies.

Keywords: Aedes albopictus; arbovirus; population dynamics; modelling; sensitivity analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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