Heat-Related Deaths in Hot Cities: Estimates of Human Tolerance to High Temperature Thresholds

Sharon L. Harlan, Gerardo Chowell, Shuo Yang, Diana B. Petitti, Emmanuel J. Morales Butler, Benjamin L. Ruddell and Darren M. Ruddell
Additional contact information
Sharon L. Harlan: School of Human Evolution & Social Change, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287, USA
Gerardo Chowell: School of Human Evolution & Social Change, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287, USA
Shuo Yang: School of Mathematical & Statistical Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287, USA
Diana B. Petitti: Department of Biomedical Informatics, Arizona State University, 13212 East Shea Boulevard, Scottsdale, AZ 85259, USA
Emmanuel J. Morales Butler: School of Human Evolution & Social Change, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287, USA
Benjamin L. Ruddell: Department of Engineering and Computing Systems, Polytechnic School, Arizona State University, 330M Peralta Hall, Mesa, AZ 85212, USA
Darren M. Ruddell: Spatial Sciences Institute, University of Southern California, 3616 Trousdale Parkway, AHF B55, Los Angeles, CA 90089, USA

IJERPH, 2014, vol. 11, issue 3, 1-23

Abstract: In this study we characterized the relationship between temperature and mortality in central Arizona desert cities that have an extremely hot climate. Relationships between daily maximum apparent temperature (AT max ) and mortality for eight condition-specific causes and all-cause deaths were modeled for all residents and separately for males and females ages <65 and ≥65 during the months May–October for years 2000–2008. The most robust relationship was between AT max on day of death and mortality from direct exposure to high environmental heat. For this condition-specific cause of death, the heat thresholds in all gender and age groups (AT max = 90–97 °F; 32.2‒36.1 °C) were below local median seasonal temperatures in the study period (AT max = 99.5 °F; 37.5 °C). Heat threshold was defined as AT max at which the mortality ratio begins an exponential upward trend. Thresholds were identified in younger and older females for cardiac disease/stroke mortality (AT max = 106 and 108 °F; 41.1 and 42.2 °C) with a one-day lag. Thresholds were also identified for mortality from respiratory diseases in older people (AT max = 109 °F; 42.8 °C) and for all-cause mortality in females (AT max = 107 °F; 41.7 °C) and males <65 years (AT max = 102 °F; 38.9 °C). Heat-related mortality in a region that has already made some adaptations to predictable periods of extremely high temperatures suggests that more extensive and targeted heat-adaptation plans for climate change are needed in cities worldwide.

Keywords: apparent temperature; climate; gender; heat-related deaths; hot climate; hot cities; temperature threshold (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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