A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Dengue Risk with Temperature Change

Jingchun Fan, Wanxia Wei, Zhenggang Bai, Chunling Fan, Shulan Li, Qiyong Liu and Kehu Yang
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Jingchun Fan: First Clinical Medical College, Lanzhou University, No. 1 Donggang West Road, Chengguan District, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China
Wanxia Wei: University Hospital of Gansu Traditional Chinese Medicine, No. 732 Jiayuguan West Road, Chenguang District, Lanzhou, Gansu 730020, China
Zhenggang Bai: Key Laboratory of Evidence Based Medicine and Knowledge Translation of Gansu Province, No. 222 Tianshui South Road, Chengguan District, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China
Chunling Fan: Department of Clinical Pharmacy, Gansu Provincial Cancer Hospital, No. 2 Xiaoxihu East Street, Qilihe District, Lanzhou, Gansu 730050, China
Shulan Li: Department of Ultrasound, People's Hospital of Gansu Province, No. 204 Donggang West Road, Chengguan District, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China
Qiyong Liu: State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, China CDC, No. 155 Changbai Road, Changping District, Beijing 102206, China
Kehu Yang: First Clinical Medical College, Lanzhou University, No. 1 Donggang West Road, Chengguan District, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China

IJERPH, 2014, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-15

Abstract: Dengue fever (DF) is the most serious mosquito-borne viral disease in the world and is significantly affected by temperature. Although associations between DF and temperatures have been reported repeatedly, conclusions have been inconsistent. Six databases were searched up to 23 March 2014, without language and geographical restrictions. The articles that studied the correlations between temperatures and dengue were selected, and a random-effects model was used to calculate the pooled odds ratio and 95% confidence intervals. Of 1589 identified articles, 137 were reviewed further, with 33 satisfying inclusion criteria. The closest associations were observed between mean temperature from the included studies (23.2–27.7 °C) and DF (OR 35.0% per 1 °C; 95% CI 18.3%–51.6%) positively. Additionally, minimum (18.1–24.2 °C) (29.5% per 1 °C; 20.9%–38.1%) and maximum temperature (28.0–34.5 °C) (28.9%; 10.3%–47.5%) were also associated with increased dengue transmission. The OR of DF incidence increased steeply from 22 °C to 29 °C, suggesting an inflexion of DF risk between these lower and upper limits of DF risk. This discovery is helpful for government decision-makers focused on preventing and controlling dengue in areas with temperatures within this range.

Keywords: dengue fever (DF); temperature; correlation; odds ratio (OR); systematic review; meta-analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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