Changes in the Effect of Heat on Mortality in the Last 20 Years in Nine European Cities. Results from the PHASE Project

Francesca K. De’ Donato, Michela Leone, Matteo Scortichini, Manuela De Sario, Klea Katsouyanni, Timo Lanki, Xavier Basagaña, Ferran Ballester, Christofer Åström, Anna Paldy, Mathilde Pascal, Antonio Gasparrini, Bettina Menne and Paola Michelozzi
Additional contact information
Francesca K. De’ Donato: Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Via di Santa Costanza 53, Rome 00198, Italy
Michela Leone: Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Via di Santa Costanza 53, Rome 00198, Italy
Matteo Scortichini: Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Via di Santa Costanza 53, Rome 00198, Italy
Manuela De Sario: Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Via di Santa Costanza 53, Rome 00198, Italy
Klea Katsouyanni: Department of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Medical School, University of Athens, Athens 11527, Greece
Timo Lanki: Department of Health Protection, National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL), Neulaniementie 4, PO Box 95, Kuopio 70701, Finland
Xavier Basagaña: Centre for Research in Environmental Epidemiology (CREAL), Doctor Aiguader 88, Barcelona 08003, Spain
Ferran Ballester: Spanish Consortium for Research on Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Melchor Fernández Almagro, 3–5, Madrid 28029, Spain
Christofer Åström: Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine Umeå University, Umeå 90187, Sweden
Anna Paldy: Jozsef Fodor National Center of Public Health, National Institute of Environmental Health, Department Of Biological Monitoring, Gyali ut 2–6, Po Box 64, Budapest 1097, Hungary
Mathilde Pascal: Department of Environmental Health (DSE), Institute de Veille Sanitaire, 12, rue du Val d’Osne, Saint Maurice 94415, France
Antonio Gasparrini: Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 15–17 Tavistock Place, London WC1H 9SH, UK
Bettina Menne: WHO Regional Office for Europe, European Centre for Environment and Health, Platz der Vereinten Nationen 1, Bonn D-53113, Germany
Paola Michelozzi: Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Via di Santa Costanza 53, Rome 00198, Italy

IJERPH, 2015, vol. 12, issue 12, 1-17

Abstract: The European project PHASE aims to evaluate patterns of change in the temperature–mortality relationship and in the number of deaths attributable to heat in nine European cities in two periods, before and after summer 2003 (1996–2002 and 2004–2010). We performed age-specific Poisson regression models separately in the two periods, controlling for seasonality, air pollution and time trends. Distributed lag non-linear models were used to estimate the Relative Risks of daily mortality for increases in mean temperature from the 75th to 99th percentile of the summer distribution for each city. In the recent period, a reduction in the mortality risk associated to heat was observed only in Athens, Rome and Paris, especially among the elderly. Furthermore, in terms of heat-attributable mortality, 985, 787 and 623 fewer deaths were estimated, respectively, in the three cities. In Helsinki and Stockholm, there is a suggestion of increased heat effect. Noteworthy is that an effect of heat was still present in the recent years in all cities, ranging from +11% to +35%. In Europe, considering the warming observed in recent decades and population ageing, effective intervention measures should be promoted across countries, especially targeting vulnerable subgroups of the population with lower adaptive resources.

Keywords: heat; mortality; adaptation; attributable deaths; climate change; heat prevention plans (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (14)

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