Identifying Meteorological Drivers for the Seasonal Variations of Influenza Infections in a Subtropical City — Hong Kong

Ka Chun Chong, William Goggins, Benny Chung Ying Zee and Maggie Haitian Wang
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Ka Chun Chong: Division of Biostatistics, The Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
William Goggins: Division of Biostatistics, The Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
Benny Chung Ying Zee: Division of Biostatistics, The Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
Maggie Haitian Wang: Division of Biostatistics, The Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China

IJERPH, 2015, vol. 12, issue 2, 1-17

Abstract: Compared with temperate areas, the understanding of seasonal variations of influenza infections is lacking in subtropical and tropical regions. Insufficient information about viral activity increases the difficulty of forecasting the disease burden and thus hampers official preparation efforts. Here we identified potential meteorological factors that drove the seasonal variations in influenza infections in a subtropical city, Hong Kong. We fitted the meteorological data and influenza mortality data from 2002 to 2009 in a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model. From the results, air temperature was a common significant driver of seasonal patterns and cold temperature was associated with an increase in transmission intensity for most of the influenza epidemics. Except 2004, the fitted models with significant meteorological factors could account for more than 10% of the variance in additional to the null model. Rainfall was also found to be a significant driver of seasonal influenza, although results were less robust. The identified meteorological indicators could alert officials to take appropriate control measures for influenza epidemics, such as enhancing vaccination activities before cold seasons. Further studies are required to fully justify the associations.

Keywords: temperature; influenza; seasonality; transmission rate; epidemic; SIR model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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