Evaluating the Effects of Temperature on Mortality in Manila City (Philippines) from 2006–2010 Using a Distributed Lag Nonlinear Model

Xerxes T. Seposo, Tran Ngoc Dang and Yasushi Honda
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Xerxes T. Seposo: Graduate School of Comprehensive Human Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba City, Ibaraki Prefecture 305-8577, Japan
Tran Ngoc Dang: Graduate School of Comprehensive Human Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba City, Ibaraki Prefecture 305-8577, Japan
Yasushi Honda: Faculty of Health and Sports Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba City, Ibaraki Prefecture 305-8577, Japan

IJERPH, 2015, vol. 12, issue 6, 1-16

Abstract: The effect of temperature on the risk of mortality has been described in numerous studies of category-specific (e.g., cause-, sex-, age-, and season-specific) mortality in temperate and subtropical countries, with consistent findings of U-, V-, and J-shaped exposure-response functions. In this study, we analyzed the relationship between temperature and mortality in Manila City (Philippines), during 2006–2010 to identify the potential susceptible populations. We collected daily all-cause and cause-specific death counts from the Philippine Statistics Authority-National Statistics Office and the meteorological variables were collected from the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration. Temperature-mortality relationships were modeled using Poisson regression combined with distributed lag nonlinear models, and were used to perform cause-, sex-, age-, and season-specific analyses. The minimum mortality temperature was 30 °C, and increased risks of mortality were observed per 1 °C increase among elderly persons (RR: 1.53, 95% CI: 1.31–1.80), women (RR: 1.47, 95% CI: 1.27–1.69), and for respiratory causes of death (RR: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.23–1.88). Seasonal effect modification was found to greatly affect the risks in the lower temperature range. Thus, the temperature-mortality relationship in Manila City exhibited an increased risk of mortality among elderly persons, women, and for respiratory-causes, with inherent effect modification in the season-specific analysis. The findings of this study may facilitate the development of public health policies to reduce the effects of air temperature on mortality, especially for these high-risk groups.

Keywords: temperature-mortality relationship; distributed lag nonlinear model; category-specific mortality; all-cause mortality (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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