Forecasting and Analyzing the Disease Burden of Aged Population in China, Based on the 2010 Global Burden of Disease Study

Chengzhen Bao, Mamat Mayila, Zhenhua Ye, Jianbing Wang, Mingjuan Jin, Wenjiong He and Kun Chen
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Chengzhen Bao: School of Public Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
Mamat Mayila: School of Public Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
Zhenhua Ye: School of Public Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
Jianbing Wang: School of Public Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
Mingjuan Jin: School of Public Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
Wenjiong He: School of Public Affairs, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
Kun Chen: School of Public Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China

IJERPH, 2015, vol. 12, issue 7, 1-13

Abstract: Background : Forecasting the disease burden of the elderly will contribute to make a comprehensive assessment about physical and mental status of the elderly in China and provide a basis for reducing the negative consequences of aging society to a minimum. Methods : This study collected data from a public database online provided by Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. Grey model GM (1, 1) was used to forecast all-cause and disease-specific rates of disability adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2015 and 2020. Results : After cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis, we found that non-communicable diseases (NCDs) were still the greatest threats in the elderly, followed by injuries. As for 136 predicted causes, more than half of NCDs increased obviously with age, less than a quarter of communicable, material, neonatal, and nutritional disorders or injuries had uptrend. Conclusions : The findings display the health condition of the Chinese elderly in the future, which will provide critical information for scientific and sociological researches on preventing and reducing the risks of aging society.

Keywords: disease burden; aged population; China; Grey model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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