Quantifying Vulnerability to Extreme Heat in Time Series Analyses: A Novel Approach Applied to Neighborhood Social Disparities under Climate Change

Tarik Benmarhnia, Patrick Grenier, Allan Brand, Michel Fournier, Séverine Deguen and Audrey Smargiassi
Additional contact information
Tarik Benmarhnia: Université de Montréal, DSEST, Montréal, QC H3T 1A8, Canada
Patrick Grenier: Consortium Ouranos, Montréal, Département Scénarios et Services Climatiques, Montréal, QC H3A 1B9, Canada
Allan Brand: Institut National de Santé Publique du Québec, Montréal, QC H3A 1B9, Canada
Michel Fournier: Direction de santé publique de l’Agence de la santé et des services sociaux de Montréal, QC H2P 1E2, Canada
Séverine Deguen: EHESP School of Public Health, Rennes, Sorbonne-Paris Cité 35043, France
Audrey Smargiassi: Université de Montréal, DSEST, Montréal, QC H3T 1A8, Canada

IJERPH, 2015, vol. 12, issue 9, 1-11

Abstract: Objectives : We propose a novel approach to examine vulnerability in the relationship between heat and years of life lost and apply to neighborhood social disparities in Montreal and Paris. Methods : We used historical data from the summers of 1990 through 2007 for Montreal and from 2004 through 2009 for Paris to estimate daily years of life lost social disparities (DYLLD), summarizing social inequalities across groups. We used Generalized Linear Models to separately estimate relative risks (RR) for DYLLD in association with daily mean temperatures in both cities. We used 30 climate scenarios of daily mean temperature to estimate future temperature distributions (2021–2050). We performed random effect meta-analyses to assess the impact of climate change by climate scenario for each city and compared the impact of climate change for the two cities using a meta-regression analysis. Results : We show that an increase in ambient temperature leads to an increase in social disparities in daily years of life lost. The impact of climate change on DYLLD attributable to temperature was of 2.06 (95% CI: 1.90, 2.25) in Montreal and 1.77 (95% CI: 1.61, 1.94) in Paris. The city explained a difference of 0.31 (95% CI: 0.14, 0.49) on the impact of climate change. Conclusion : We propose a new analytical approach for estimating vulnerability in the relationship between heat and health. Our results suggest that in Paris and Montreal, health disparities related to heat impacts exist today and will increase in the future.

Keywords: social health inequalities; years of life lost; climate change; climate models; population health; temperature; time-series analyses (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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