Lung Cancer Mortality Trends in China from 1988 to 2013: New Challenges and Opportunities for the Government

Lijun Wang, Chuanhua Yu, Yu Liu, Jun Wang, Chunhui Li, Quan Wang, Peigang Wang, Shaotang Wu and Zhi-Jiang Zhang
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Lijun Wang: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Wuhan University, No. 185 Donghu Road, Wuhan 430071, China
Chuanhua Yu: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Wuhan University, No. 185 Donghu Road, Wuhan 430071, China
Yu Liu: Department of Statistics and Management, School of Management, Wuhan Institute of Technology, 206 Optical Valley Avenue, Wuhan 430205, China
Jun Wang: Institute of Health Finance and Economics, Central University of Finance and Economics, 39 Xueyuan South Road, Beijing 100081, China
Chunhui Li: School of Public Health, Dalian Medical University, No. 9 Lvshun South Road, Dalian 116044, China
Quan Wang: Global Health Institute, Wuhan University, No. 185 Donghu Road, Wuhan 430071, China
Peigang Wang: Global Health Institute, Wuhan University, No. 185 Donghu Road, Wuhan 430071, China
Shaotang Wu: Global Health Institute, Wuhan University, No. 185 Donghu Road, Wuhan 430071, China
Zhi-Jiang Zhang: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Wuhan University, No. 185 Donghu Road, Wuhan 430071, China

IJERPH, 2016, vol. 13, issue 11, 1-12

Abstract: Background : As lung cancer has shown a continuously increasing trend in many countries, it is essential to stay abreast of lung cancer mortality information and take informed actions with a theoretical basis derived from appropriate and practical statistical methods. Methods : Age-specific rates were collected by gender and region (urban/rural) and analysed with descriptive methods and age-period-cohort models to estimate the trends in lung cancer mortality in China from 1988 to 2013. Results : Descriptive analysis revealed that the age-specific mortality rates of lung cancer in rural residents increased markedly over the last three decades, and there was no obvious increase in urban residents. APC analysis showed that the lung cancer mortality rates significantly increased with age (20–84), rose slightly with the time period, and decreased with the cohort, except for the rural cohorts born during the early years (1909–1928). The trends in the patterns of the period and cohort effects showed marked disparities between the urban and rural residents. Conclusions : Lung cancer mortality remains serious and is likely to continue to rise in China. Some known measures are suggested to be decisive factors in mitigating lung cancer, such as environmental conservation, medical security, and tobacco control, which should be implemented more vigorously over the long term in China, especially in rural areas.

Keywords: age-period-cohort models; lung cancer mortality; air pollution; medical security; tobacco control (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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