Crash Risk Prediction Modeling Based on the Traffic Conflict Technique and a Microscopic Simulation for Freeway Interchange Merging Areas

Shen Li, Qiaojun Xiang, Yongfeng Ma, Xin Gu and Han Li
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Shen Li: School of Transportation, Southeast University, Si Pai Lou #2, Nanjing 210096, China
Qiaojun Xiang: School of Transportation, Southeast University, Si Pai Lou #2, Nanjing 210096, China
Yongfeng Ma: School of Transportation, Southeast University, Si Pai Lou #2, Nanjing 210096, China
Xin Gu: School of Transportation, Southeast University, Si Pai Lou #2, Nanjing 210096, China
Han Li: School of Transportation, Southeast University, Si Pai Lou #2, Nanjing 210096, China

IJERPH, 2016, vol. 13, issue 11, 1-14

Abstract: This paper evaluates the traffic safety of freeway interchange merging areas based on the traffic conflict technique. The hourly composite risk indexes (HCRI) was defined. By the use of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) photography and video processing techniques, the conflict type and severity was judged. Time to collision (TTC) was determined with the traffic conflict evaluation index. Then, the TTC severity threshold was determined. Quantizing the weight of the conflict by direct losses of different severities of freeway traffic accidents, the calculated weight of the HCRI can be obtained. Calibration of the relevant parameters of the micro-simulation simulator VISSIM is conducted by the travel time according to the field data. Variables are placed into orthogonal tables at different levels. On the basis of this table, the trajectory file of every traffic condition is simulated, and then submitted into a surrogate safety assessment model (SSAM), identifying the number of hourly traffic conflicts in the merging area, a statistic of HCRI. Moreover, the multivariate linear regression model was presented and validated to study the relationship between HCRI and the influencing variables. A comparison between the HCRI model and the hourly conflicts ratio (HCR), without weight, shows that the HCRI model fitting degree was obviously higher than the HCR. This will be a reference to design and implement operational planners.

Keywords: traffic safety; traffic conflict; traffic simulation; interchange merging area (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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