Predicting Driver Behavior during the Yellow Interval Using Video Surveillance

Juan Li, Xudong Jia and Chunfu Shao
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Juan Li: MOE Key Laboratory for Urban Transportation Complex Systems Theory and Technology, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China
Xudong Jia: Civil Engineering Department, California State Polytechnic University, Pomona, CA 91768, USA
Chunfu Shao: MOE Key Laboratory for Urban Transportation Complex Systems Theory and Technology, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China

IJERPH, 2016, vol. 13, issue 12, 1-15

Abstract: At a signalized intersection, drivers must make a stop/go decision at the onset of the yellow signal. Incorrect decisions would lead to red light running (RLR) violations or crashes. This study aims to predict drivers’ stop/go decisions and RLR violations during yellow intervals. Traffic data such as vehicle approaching speed, acceleration, distance to the intersection, and occurrence of RLR violations are gathered by a Vehicle Data Collection System (VDCS). An enhanced Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) is used to extract moving vehicles from target lanes, and the Kalman Filter (KF) algorithm is utilized to acquire vehicle trajectories. The data collected from the VDCS are further analyzed by a sequential logit model, and the relationship between drivers’ stop/go decisions and RLR violations is identified. The results indicate that the distance of vehicles to the stop line at the onset of the yellow signal is an important predictor for both drivers’ stop/go decisions and RLR violations. In addition, vehicle approaching speed is a contributing factor for stop/go decisions. Furthermore, the accelerations of vehicles after the onset of the yellow signal are positively related to RLR violations. The findings of this study can be used to predict the probability of drivers’ RLR violations and improve traffic safety at signalized intersections.

Keywords: video surveillance; driver behavior; signalized intersection; sequential logit model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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