Evaluation of an Early-Warning System for Heat Wave-Related Mortality in Europe: Implications for Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Forecasting and Climate Services

Rachel Lowe, Markel García-Díez, Joan Ballester, James Creswick, Jean-Marie Robine, François R. Herrmann and Xavier Rodó
Additional contact information
Rachel Lowe: Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences (IC3), Carrer Doctor Trueta, 203, 3a, 08005 Barcelona, Spain
Markel García-Díez: Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences (IC3), Carrer Doctor Trueta, 203, 3a, 08005 Barcelona, Spain
Joan Ballester: Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences (IC3), Carrer Doctor Trueta, 203, 3a, 08005 Barcelona, Spain
James Creswick: World Health Organization (WHO) Regional Office for Europe, European Centre for Environment and Health, Platz der Vereinten Nationen 1, 53113 Bonn, Germany
Jean-Marie Robine: National Institute of Health and Medical Research, INSERM U988 and U1198, University of Montpelier, Building 24, Place Eugène Bataillon-CC105, 34095 Montpellier, Cedex 05, France
François R. Herrmann: Division of Geriatrics, Department of Internal Medicine, Rehabilitation and Geriatrics, Geneva University Hospitals, University of Geneva, Chemin du., Pont-Bochet, 1226 Thônex, Switzerland
Xavier Rodó: Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences (IC3), Carrer Doctor Trueta, 203, 3a, 08005 Barcelona, Spain

IJERPH, 2016, vol. 13, issue 2, 1-13

Abstract: Heat waves have been responsible for more fatalities in Europe over the past decades than any other extreme weather event. However, temperature-related illnesses and deaths are largely preventable. Reliable sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) climate forecasts of extreme temperatures could allow for better short-to-medium-term resource management within heat-health action plans, to protect vulnerable populations and ensure access to preventive measures well in advance. The objective of this study is to assess the extent to which S2S climate forecasts could be incorporated into heat-health action plans, to support timely public health decision-making ahead of imminent heat wave events in Europe. Forecasts of apparent temperature at different lead times (e.g., 1 day, 4 days, 8 days, up to 3 months) were used in a mortality model to produce probabilistic mortality forecasts up to several months ahead of the 2003 heat wave event in Europe. Results were compared to mortality predictions, inferred using observed apparent temperature data in the mortality model. In general, we found a decreasing transition in skill between excellent predictions when using observed temperature, to predictions with no skill when using forecast temperature with lead times greater than one week. However, even at lead-times up to three months, there were some regions in Spain and the United Kingdom where excess mortality was detected with some certainty. This suggests that in some areas of Europe, there is potential for S2S climate forecasts to be incorporated in localised heat–health action plans. In general, these results show that the performance of this climate service framework is not limited by the mortality model itself, but rather by the predictability of the climate variables, at S2S time scales, over Europe.

Keywords: temperature; extremes; heat wave; mortality model; early warning system; climate services (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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