Effect of Climate Factors on the Childhood Pneumonia in Papua New Guinea: A Time-Series Analysis

Jinseob Kim, Jong-Hun Kim, Hae-Kwan Cheong, Ho Kim, Yasushi Honda, Mina Ha, Masahiro Hashizume, Joel Kolam and Kasis Inape
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Jinseob Kim: Department of Preventive Medicine, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 08826, Korea
Jong-Hun Kim: Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, 2066 Seobu-ro, Jangan-gu, Suwon, Gyeonggi-do 16419, Korea
Hae-Kwan Cheong: Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, 2066 Seobu-ro, Jangan-gu, Suwon, Gyeonggi-do 16419, Korea
Ho Kim: Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Graduate School of Public Health, and Institute of Public Health and Environment, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 08826, Korea
Yasushi Honda: Graduate School of Comprehensive Human Sciences, University of Tsukuba, 1-1-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8577, Japan
Mina Ha: Department of Preventive Medicine, Dankook University College of Medicine, 119 Dandae-ro, Dongnam-gu, Cheonan, Chungcheongnam-do 31116, Korea
Masahiro Hashizume: Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, 1-12-4 Sakamoto Nagasaki 852-8523, Japan
Joel Kolam: National Department of Health, P.O. Box 807 Waigani, Port Moresby, National Capital District, Papua New 131, Guinea
Kasis Inape: National Weather Service, P.O. Box 1240 Boroko, Port Mresby, National Capital District, Papua New 111, Guinea

IJERPH, 2016, vol. 13, issue 2, 1-16

Abstract: This study aimed to assess the association between climate factors and the incidence of childhood pneumonia in Papua New Guinea quantitatively and to evaluate the variability of the effect size according to their geographic properties. The pneumonia incidence in children under five-year and meteorological factors were obtained from six areas, including monthly rainfall and the monthly average daily maximum temperatures during the period from 1997 to 2006 from national health surveillance data. A generalized linear model was applied to measure the effect size of local and regional climate factor. The pooled risk of pneumonia in children per every 10 mm increase of rainfall was 0.24% (95% confidence interval: ?0.01%–0.50%), and risk per every 1 °C increase of the monthly mean of the maximum daily temperatures was 4.88% (95% CI: 1.57–8.30). Southern oscillation index and dipole mode index showed an overall negative effect on childhood pneumonia incidence, ?0.57% and ?4.30%, respectively, and the risk of pneumonia was higher in the dry season than in the rainy season (pooled effect: 12.08%). There was a variability in the relationship between climate factors and pneumonia which is assumed to reflect distribution of the determinants of and vulnerability to pneumonia in the community.

Keywords: climate; seasonality; tropical area; El Niño southern oscillation; Indian Ocean dipole; meta-analysis; vulnerability; Asia-Pacific (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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