Estimating Temperature-Mortality Exposure-Response Relationships and Optimum Ambient Temperature at the Multi-City Level of China

Qiang Zeng, Guoxing Li, Yushan Cui, Guohong Jiang and Xiaochuan Pan
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Qiang Zeng: Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Huayue Road, Hedong District, Tianjin 300011, China
Guoxing Li: Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Peking University, Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China
Yushan Cui: Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Huayue Road, Hedong District, Tianjin 300011, China
Guohong Jiang: Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Huayue Road, Hedong District, Tianjin 300011, China
Xiaochuan Pan: Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Peking University, Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China

IJERPH, 2016, vol. 13, issue 3, 1-12

Abstract: Few studies have explored temperature–mortality relationships in China, especially at the multi-large city level. This study was based on the data of seven typical, large Chinese cities to examine temperature-mortality relationships and optimum temperature of China. A generalized additive model (GAM) was applied to analyze the acute-effect of temperature on non-accidental mortality, and meta-analysis was used to merge data. Furthermore, the lagged effects of temperature up to 40 days on mortality and optimum temperature were analyzed using the distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM). We found that for all non-accidental mortality, high temperature could significantly increase the excess risk (ER) of death by 0.33% (95% confidence interval: 0.11%, 0.56%) with the temperature increase of 1 °C. Similar but non-significant ER of death was observed when temperature decreased. The lagged effect of temperature showed that the relative risk of non-accidental mortality was lowest at 21 °C. Our research suggests that high temperatures are more likely to cause an acute increase in mortality. There was a lagged effect of temperature on mortality, with an optimum temperature of 21 °C. Our results could provide a theoretical basis for climate-related public health policy.

Keywords: temperature; mortality; generalized additive model; distributed lag non-linear model; lagged effects (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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