Impact of Heat Wave Definitions on the Added Effect of Heat Waves on Cardiovascular Mortality in Beijing, China

Wentan Dong, Qiang Zeng, Yue Ma, Guoxing Li and Xiaochuan Pan
Additional contact information
Wentan Dong: Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Peking University, No. 38, Xueyuan Rd, Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China
Qiang Zeng: Tianjin Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Tianjin 300011, China
Yue Ma: Department of psychology, DePauw University, 408 South Locust Street, Greencastle, IN 46135, USA
Guoxing Li: Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Peking University, No. 38, Xueyuan Rd, Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China
Xiaochuan Pan: Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Peking University, No. 38, Xueyuan Rd, Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China

IJERPH, 2016, vol. 13, issue 9, 1-12

Abstract: Heat waves are associated with increased mortality, however, few studies have examined the added effect of heat waves. Moreover, there is limited evidence for the influence of different heat wave definitions (HWs) on cardiovascular mortality in Beijing, the capital of China. The aim of this study was to find the best HW definitions for cardiovascular mortality, and we examined the effect modification by an individual characteristic on cardiovascular mortality in Beijing, a typical northern city in China. We applied a Poisson generalized additive approach to estimate the differences in cardiovascular mortality during heat waves (using 12 HWs) compared with non-heat-wave days in Beijing from 2006 to 2009. We also validated the model fit by checking the residuals to ensure that the autocorrelation was successfully removed. In addition, the effect modifications by individual characteristics were explored in different HWs. Our results showed that the associations between heat waves and cardiovascular mortality differed from different HWs. HWs using the 93th percentile of the daily average temperature (27.7 °C) and a duration ?5 days had the greatest risk, with an increase of 18% (95% confidence interval (CI): 6%, 31%) in the overall population, 24% (95% CI: 10%, 39%) in an older group (ages ?65 years), and 22% (95% CI: 3%, 44%) in a female group. The added effect of heat waves was apparent after 5 consecutive heat wave days for the overall population and the older group. Females and the elderly were at higher risk than males and younger subjects (ages <65 years). Our findings suggest that heat wave definitions play a significant role in the relationship between heat wave and cardiovascular mortality. Using a suitable definition may have implications for designing local heat early warning systems and protecting the susceptible populations during heat waves.

Keywords: heat waves; added effect; different definitions; cardiovascular mortality; modification (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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