Analysis of Transmission and Control of Tuberculosis in Mainland China, 2005–2016, Based on the Age-Structure Mathematical Model

Yu Zhao, Mingtao Li and Sanling Yuan
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Yu Zhao: School of Public Health and Management, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan 750004, Ningxia, China
Mingtao Li: School of Computer and Information Technology, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, Shanxi, China
Sanling Yuan: College of Science, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai 200093, China

IJERPH, 2017, vol. 14, issue 10, 1-14

Abstract: Tuberculosis (TB), an air-borne infectious disease, is a major public-health problem in China. The reported number of the active tuberculosis cases is about one million each year. The morbidity data for 2005–2012 reflect that the difference in morbidity based on age group is significant, thus the role of age-structure on the transmission of TB needs to be further developed. In this work, based on the reported data and the observed morbidity characteristics, we propose a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) epidemic model with age groupings, involving three categories: children, the middle-aged, and senior to investigate the role of age on the transmission of tuberculosis in Mainland China from 2005 to 2016. Then, we evaluated the parameters by the Least Square method and simulated the model and it had good alignment with the reported infected TB data in Mainland China. Furthermore, we estimated the basic reproduction number R 0 of 1.7858, with an obtained 95% confidence interval for R 0 of (1.7752, 1.7963) by Latin hypercube sampling, and we completed a sensitivity analysis of R 0 in terms of some parameters. Our study demonstrates that diverse age groups have different effects on TB. Two effective measures were found that would help reach the goals of theWorld Health Organization (WHO) End TB Strategy: an increase in the recovery rate and the reduction in the infectious rate of the senior age group.

Keywords: tuberculosis; age group; basic reproduction number; global stability; data fitting; uncertainty and sensitivity analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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