Climatic Factors and Influenza Transmission, Spain, 2010–2015

Diana Gomez-Barroso, Inmaculada León-Gómez, Concepción Delgado-Sanz and Amparo Larrauri
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Diana Gomez-Barroso: National Centre for Epidemiology, Carlos III Institute of Health, Monforte de Lemos 5, 28029 Madrid, Spain
Inmaculada León-Gómez: National Centre for Epidemiology, Carlos III Institute of Health, Monforte de Lemos 5, 28029 Madrid, Spain
Concepción Delgado-Sanz: National Centre for Epidemiology, Carlos III Institute of Health, Monforte de Lemos 5, 28029 Madrid, Spain
Amparo Larrauri: National Centre for Epidemiology, Carlos III Institute of Health, Monforte de Lemos 5, 28029 Madrid, Spain

IJERPH, 2017, vol. 14, issue 12, 1-9

Abstract: The spatio-temporal distribution of influenza is linked to variations in meteorological factors, like temperature, absolute humidity, or the amount of rainfall. The aim of this study was to analyse the association between influenza activity, and meteorological variables in Spain, across five influenza seasons: 2010–2011 through to 2014–2015 using generalized linear negative binomial mixed models that we calculated the weekly influenza proxies, defined as the weekly influenza-like illness rates, multiplied by the weekly proportion of respiratory specimens that tested positive for influenza. The results showed an association between influenza transmission and dew point and cumulative precipitation. In increase in the dew point temperature of 5 degrees produces a 7% decrease in the Weekly Influenza Proxy (RR 0.928, IC: 0.891–0.966), and while an increase of 10 mm in weekly rainfall equates to a 17% increase in the Weekly Influenza Proxy (RR 1.172, IC: 1.097–1.251). Influenza transmission in Spain is influenced by variations in meteorological variables as temperature, absolute humidity, or the amount of rainfall.

Keywords: influenza transmission; meteorological parameters; absolute humidity; rainfall; spatio-temporal mixed models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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