Quantifying Projected Heat Mortality Impacts under 21st-Century Warming Conditions for Selected European Countries

Vladimir Kendrovski, Michela Baccini, Gerardo Sanchez Martinez, Tanja Wolf, Elizabet Paunovic and Bettina Menne
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Vladimir Kendrovski: WHO European Centre for Environment and Health, Platz der Vereinten Nationen 1, 53113 Bonn, Germany
Michela Baccini: Department of Statistics, Informatics, Applications, University of Florence, 50134 Florence, Italy
Gerardo Sanchez Martinez: WHO European Centre for Environment and Health, Platz der Vereinten Nationen 1, 53113 Bonn, Germany
Tanja Wolf: WHO European Centre for Environment and Health, Platz der Vereinten Nationen 1, 53113 Bonn, Germany
Elizabet Paunovic: WHO European Centre for Environment and Health, Platz der Vereinten Nationen 1, 53113 Bonn, Germany
Bettina Menne: WHO European Centre for Environment and Health, Platz der Vereinten Nationen 1, 53113 Bonn, Germany

IJERPH, 2017, vol. 14, issue 7, 1-16

Abstract: Under future warming conditions, high ambient temperatures will have a significant impact on population health in Europe. The aim of this paper is to quantify the possible future impact of heat on population mortality in European countries, under different climate change scenarios. We combined the heat-mortality function estimated from historical data with meteorological projections for the future time laps 2035–2064 and 2071–2099, developed under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. We calculated attributable deaths (AD) at the country level. Overall, the expected impacts will be much larger than the impacts we would observe if apparent temperatures would remain in the future at the observed historical levels. During the period 2071–2099, an overall excess of 46,690 and 117,333 AD per year is expected under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively, in addition to the 16,303 AD estimated under the historical scenario. Mediterranean and Eastern European countries will be the most affected by heat, but a non-negligible impact will be still registered in North-continental countries. Policies and plans for heat mitigation and adaptation are needed and urgent in European countries in order to prevent the expected increase of heat-related deaths in the coming decades.

Keywords: heat-related mortality; climate change; heatwave preparedness (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:14:y:2017:i:7:p:729-:d:103728

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