Forecasting the Incidence of Mumps in Zibo City Based on a SARIMA Model

Qinqin Xu, Runzi Li, Yafei Liu, Cheng Luo, Aiqiang Xu, Fuzhong Xue, Qing Xu and Xiujun Li
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Qinqin Xu: Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China
Runzi Li: Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China
Yafei Liu: Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China
Cheng Luo: Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China
Aiqiang Xu: Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250014, China
Fuzhong Xue: Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China
Qing Xu: Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250014, China
Xiujun Li: Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China

IJERPH, 2017, vol. 14, issue 8, 1-11

Abstract: This study aimed to predict the incidence of mumps using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, and provide theoretical evidence for early warning prevention and control in Zibo City, Shandong Province, China. Monthly mumps data from Zibo City gathered between 2005 and 2013 were used as a training set to construct a SARIMA model, and the monthly mumps in 2014 were defined as a test set for the model. From 2005 to 2014, a total of 8722 cases of mumps were reported in Zibo City; the male-to-female ratio of cases was 1.85:1, the age group of 1–20 years old accounted for 94.05% of all reported cases, and students made up the largest proportion (65.89%). The main serious endemic areas of mumps were located in Huantai County, Linzi District, and Boshan District of Zibo City. There were two epidemic peaks from April to July and from October to January in next year. The fitted model SARIMA (0, 1, 1) (0, 1, 1) 12 was established (AIC = 157.528), which has high validity and reasonability. The SARIMA model fitted dynamic changes of mumps in Zibo City well. It can be used for short-term forecasting and early warning of mumps.

Keywords: mumps; time series analysis; SARIMA model; infectious disease epidemiology (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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