Applying Nonparametric Methods to Analyses of Short-Term Fine Particulate Matter Exposure and Hospital Admissions for Cardiovascular Diseases among Older Adults

Louis Anthony (Tony) Cox, Xiaobin Liu, Liuhua Shi, Ke Zu and Julie Goodman
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Louis Anthony (Tony) Cox: Cox Associates Consulting, Denver, CO 80218, USA
Xiaobin Liu: Gradient, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA
Liuhua Shi: Gradient, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA
Ke Zu: Gradient, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA
Julie Goodman: Gradient, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA

IJERPH, 2017, vol. 14, issue 9, 1-14

Abstract: Short-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) has been associated with increased risks of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), but whether such associations are supportive of a causal relationship is unclear, and few studies have employed formal causal analysis methods to address this. We employed nonparametric methods to examine the associations between daily concentrations of PM 2.5 and hospital admissions (HAs) for CVD among adults aged 75 years and older in Texas, USA. We first quantified the associations in partial dependence plots generated using the random forest approach. We next used a Bayesian network learning algorithm to identify conditional dependencies between CVD HAs of older men and women and several predictor variables. We found that geographic location (county), time (e.g., month and year), and temperature satisfied necessary information conditions for being causes of CVD HAs among older men and women, but daily PM 2.5 concentrations did not. We also found that CVD HAs of disjoint subpopulations were strongly predictive of CVD HAs among older men and women, indicating the presence of unmeasured confounders. Our findings from nonparametric analyses do not support PM 2.5 as a direct cause of CVD HAs among older adults.

Keywords: air pollution; fine particulate matter; epidemiology; causal analysis; nonparametric; cardiovascular disease (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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