Forecasting the Amount of Waste-Sewage Water Discharged into the Yangtze River Basin Based on the Optimal Fractional Order Grey Model

Shuliang Li, Wei Meng and Yufeng Xie
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Shuliang Li: College of Business Planning, Chongqing Technology and Business University; Chongqing 400067, China
Wei Meng: College of Business Planning, Chongqing Technology and Business University; Chongqing 400067, China
Yufeng Xie: Chongqing Key Laboratory of Electronic Commerce and Supply Chain System, Chongqing 400067, China

IJERPH, 2017, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-15

Abstract: With the rapid development of the Yangtze River economic belt, the amount of waste-sewage water discharged into the Yangtze River basin increases sharply year by year, which has impeded the sustainable development of the Yangtze River basin. The water security along the Yangtze River basin is very important for China, It is something aboutwater security of roughly one-third of China’s population and the sustainable development of the 19 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions among the Yangtze River basin. Therefore, a scientific prediction of the amount of waste-sewage water discharged into Yangtze River basin has a positive significance on sustainable development of industry belt along with Yangtze River basin. This paper builds the fractional DWSGM(1,1)(DWSGM(1,1) model is short for Discharge amount of Waste Sewage Grey Model for one order equation and one variable) model based on the fractional accumulating generation operator and fractional reducing operator, and calculates the optimal order of “r” by using particle swarm optimization(PSO)algorithm for solving the minimum average relative simulation error. Meanwhile, the simulation performance of DWSGM(1,1)model with the optimal fractional order is tested by comparing the simulation results of grey prediction models with different orders. Finally, the optimal fractional order DWSGM(1,1)grey model is applied to predict the amount of waste-sewage water discharged into the Yangtze River basin, and corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward through analyzing and comparing the prediction results. This paper has positive significance on enriching the fractional order modeling method of the grey system.

Keywords: grey theory; fractional order grey model; particle swarm optimization; the Yangtze River basin; discharge amount of waste-sewage water; simulation and prediction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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