Modelling the Transmission Dynamics and Control of Mumps in Mainland China

Yong Li, Xianning Liu and Lianwen Wang
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Yong Li: Key Laboratory of Eco-Environments in Three Gorges Reservoir Region (Ministry of Education), School of Mathematics and Statistics, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China
Xianning Liu: Key Laboratory of Eco-Environments in Three Gorges Reservoir Region (Ministry of Education), School of Mathematics and Statistics, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China
Lianwen Wang: Department of Mathematics, Hubei University for Nationalities, Enshi 445000, China

IJERPH, 2017, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-17

Abstract: Mumps is a common childhood viral disease and children have been vaccinated throughout the world since 1967. The incidence of mumps has increased with more than 300,000 young people infected with mumps annually in mainland China since 2005. Therefore, we designed and analyzed long-term mumps surveillance data in an SVEILR (susceptible–vaccinated–exposed–severely infectious–mildly infectious–recovered) dynamic transmission model with optimized parameter values to describe the dynamics of mumps infections in China. There were 18.02% of mumps infected young adults seeking medical advice. The vaccine coverage has been insufficient in China. Young adults with frequent contact and mild infection were identified as a major driver of mumps epidemics. The reproduction number of mumps was determined 4.28 in China. Sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number and the endemic equilibrium was conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of mumps control measures. We propose to increase the vaccine coverage and make two doses of MMR (Measles, mumps and rubella) vaccines freely available in China.

Keywords: basic reproductive number; global stability; sensitivity analysis; SVEILR mumps model; vertical transmission (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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