Global and Geographically Weighted Quantile Regression for Modeling the Incident Rate of Children’s Lead Poisoning in Syracuse, NY, USA

Zhen Zhen, Qianqian Cao, Liyang Shao and Lianjun Zhang
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Zhen Zhen: Department of Forest Management, School of Forestry, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, Heilongjiang, China
Qianqian Cao: Department of Forest and Natural Resources Management, State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry, One Forestry Drive, Syracuse, New York, NY 13210, USA
Liyang Shao: Department of Forest and Natural Resources Management, State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry, One Forestry Drive, Syracuse, New York, NY 13210, USA
Lianjun Zhang: Department of Forest and Natural Resources Management, State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry, One Forestry Drive, Syracuse, New York, NY 13210, USA

IJERPH, 2018, vol. 15, issue 10, 1-19

Abstract: Objective : The purpose of this study was to explore the full distribution of children’s lead poisoning and identify “high risk” locations or areas in the neighborhood of the inner city of Syracuse (NY, USA), using quantile regression models. Methods : Global quantile regression (QR) and geographically weighted quantile regression (GWQR) were applied to model the relationships between children’s lead poisoning and three environmental factors at different quantiles (25th, 50th, 75th, and 90th). The response variable was the incident rate of children’s blood lead level ≥ 5 µg/dL in each census block, and the three predictor variables included building year, town taxable values, and soil lead concentration. Results : At each quantile, the regression coefficients of both global QR and GWQR models were (1) negative for both building year and town taxable values, indicating that the incident rate of children lead poisoning reduced with newer buildings and/or higher taxable values of the houses; and (2) positive for the soil lead concentration, implying that higher soil lead concentration around the house may cause higher risks of children’s lead poisoning. Further, these negative or positive relationships between children’s lead poisoning and three environmental factors became stronger for larger quantiles (i.e., higher risks). Conclusions : The GWQR models enabled us to explore the full distribution of children’s lead poisoning and identify “high risk” locations or areas in the neighborhood of the inner city of Syracuse, which would provide useful information to assist the government agencies to make better decisions on where and what the lead hazard treatment should focus on.

Keywords: incidence rate of children’s blood lead poisoning; elevated blood lead level; quantile regression; geographically weighted quantile regression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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