Comparison of Secular Trends in Road Injury Mortality in China and the United States: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

Lu Wang, Chuanhua Yu, Ganshen Zhang, Yunquan Zhang and Lisha Luo
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Lu Wang: Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, 185 Donghu Road, Wuhan 430071, China
Chuanhua Yu: Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, 185 Donghu Road, Wuhan 430071, China
Ganshen Zhang: Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, 185 Donghu Road, Wuhan 430071, China
Yunquan Zhang: Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, 185 Donghu Road, Wuhan 430071, China
Lisha Luo: Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, 185 Donghu Road, Wuhan 430071, China

IJERPH, 2018, vol. 15, issue 11, 1-12

Abstract: This study aimed to identify and compare the mortality trends for road injuries in China and the United States, and evaluate the contributions of age, period, and cohort effects to the trends from 1990 to 2014. Using the 2016 Global Burden of Disease Study database, the mortality trends were analyzed by joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort modeling. Overall, the mortality for road injuries was higher in China than in the United States. The mortality in China increased from 1992 to 2002 (annual percent change [APC] was 1.9%), and then decreased from 2002 to 2015 (APC 2002–2009 was 1.5%; APC 2009–2015 was 3.5%). For the United States, the mortality decreased from 1990 to 2010 (APC 1990–1997 was 1.8%; APC 1997–2005 was 0.7%; APC 2005–2010 was 4.2%). Age-period-cohort modeling revealed significant period and cohort effects. Compared with the period 2002–2004, the period risk ratios (RRs) in 2010–2014 period declined by 14.62% for China and 18.86% for the United States. Compared with the 1955–1959 birth cohort, the cohort RRs for China and the United States in the 2010–2014 cohort reduced by 47.60% and 75.94%, respectively. Period and cohort effects could not be ignored for reducing road injury mortalities.

Keywords: age-period-cohort model; road injuries; mortality; trends (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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