Application of SCM with Bayesian B-Spline to Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Hypertension in China

Zirong Ye, Li Xu, Zi Zhou, Yafei Wu and Ya Fang
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Zirong Ye: State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiang’an Nan Road, Xiang’an District, Xiamen 361102, Fujian, China
Li Xu: Department of Statistics, School of Economics and Trade, Guangdong University of Foreign Studies, Guangzhou 510006, Guangdong, China
Zi Zhou: State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiang’an Nan Road, Xiang’an District, Xiamen 361102, Fujian, China
Yafei Wu: State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiang’an Nan Road, Xiang’an District, Xiamen 361102, Fujian, China
Ya Fang: State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiang’an Nan Road, Xiang’an District, Xiamen 361102, Fujian, China

IJERPH, 2018, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-18

Abstract: Most previous research on the disparities of hypertension risk has neither simultaneously explored the spatio-temporal disparities nor considered the spatial information contained in the samples, thus the estimated results may be unreliable. Our study was based on the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS), including residents over 12 years old in seven provinces from 1991 to 2011. Bayesian B-spline was used in the extended shared component model (SCM) for fitting temporal-related variation to explore spatio-temporal distribution in the odds ratio (OR) of hypertension, reveal gender variation, and explore latent risk factors. Our results revealed that the prevalence of hypertension increased from 14.09% in 1991 to 32.37% in 2011, with men experiencing a more obvious change than women. From a spatial perspective, a standardized prevalence ratio (SPR) remaining at a high level was found in Henan and Shandong for both men and women. Meanwhile, before 1997, the temporal distribution of hypertension risk for both men and women remained low. After that, notably since 2004, the OR of hypertension in each province increased to a relatively high level, especially in Northern China. Notably, the OR of hypertension in Shandong and Jiangsu, which was over 1.2, continuously stood out after 2004 for males, while that in Shandong and Guangxi was relatively high for females. The findings suggested that obvious spatial–temporal patterns for hypertension exist in the regions under research and this pattern was quite different between men and women.

Keywords: spatial analysis; disease mapping; hypertension; Shared Components Model (SCM); Bayesian B-spline (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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